Brexit: Third vote of May´s deal is an option – Tusk urges long delay if needed

The Thrusday trading day has been very intense when it comes to Brexit. The UK Cabinet announced during the day that Prime Minister Theresa May´s Brexit-deal might have a third vote next week Thursday if the Cabinet find it wortwhile.

According to the Cabinet, the Prime Minister will ask for short delay for the Brexit, if the deal is approved by March 20. If the deal is not approved by that, it will require longer time.

The EU President of the European Council  Donald Tusk tweeted today, that he will ask the EU leaders to be open for a long extension of the Arcticle 50 and delay of Brexit.

The EU elections at the end of May might have their impact to the timetable. If the delay is a longer one, it would mean that the UK will be participating the elections as well.

The US President Donald Trump said today that he is looking for a large-scale bilateral trade deal with EU after the Brexit time.

The stock markets have been steady with little positive trend in the largest exhanges in Europe. In Frankfurt the DAX was up 0,28 %, in Paris the CAC was up 0,64 % and in London the FTSE was up 0,68 %.

The UK sterling was down 0,52 % to 1,3269 dollars and euro down 0,19 % to 1,130 dollars. The US-dollar was up against Japanese yen with 0,40 % to 111,61 yens and against Canadian dollars by 0,29%.

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Brexit: Voting of delay in the UK Parliament today

The UK Parliament is voting also on Thursday about the Brexit delay. One of the options is that the Cabinet’s timetable leaving on the 29th March is extended if the EU accept the delay. Today´s voting can lead to different outcomes: a delay, the passing of the Cabinet’s Brexit deal anyhow as last minute, no-deal exit or another referendum.

The EU Commission confirmed on Thursday that the delay would require a justification but also the comments from member countries for example from Germany and Ireland showing their interest to find a sound solution to the situation.  It is assumed that EU would prefer only a short extension ending before the EU parliamentary elections on May 24-26.

No-deal Brexit would mean that there would not be transition period to soften the distruption to trade and business.

The stock markets were up on Thursday trading  in Europe and for example the Frankfurt DAX-index was up 0.42 % to 11 572 points and in Paris the CAC 40 -index was up 0,69 % to 5306 points. In London the FTSE all share index was up 0,14 % to 3926 points.

The UK sterling ws down 0,41 % to 1,328 dollars and euro was down 0,04 % to 1,1323 dollars.

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Brexit: No-deal rejected in the UK Parliament (updated)

IMG_0856The UK Parliament has voted to reject the Cabinet’s no-deal Brexit with votes 321-278.

At the same time the UK sterling has gained 1,3 % and was trading at 1,3249 dollars.

This decision can lead to different outcomes: a delay, the passing of the Cabinet’s Brexit deal anyhow as last minute or another referendum.

The Parliament is voting also on Thursday about the delay. It seems possible that the Cabinet’s timetable leaving on the 29th March is extended if the EU accept the delay.


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Brexit: Temporary tariffs for agri and cars in no-deal

The UK Goverment has today published its guidelines for temporary import tariffs in the case of no-deal Brexit. According to the Cabinet, the goverment wants to protect vulnerable industries like agriculture in this kind of situation. On the other hand, the goverment reminds that 87 % of total imports by value would be tariff free.

This would mean that for example vehicle import from the EU would get 13 % tariffs in the case of no-deal Brexit. This would not apply for the car parts supply from the EU.

According to the Goverment press release tariffs would apply to 13% of goods imported into the UK. This includes:

  • A mixture of tariffs and quotas on beef, lamb, pork, poultry and some dairy to support farmers and producers who have historically been protected through high EU tariffs.
  • Retaining a number of tariffs on finished vehicles in order to support the automotive sector and in light of broader challenging market conditions’. However, car makers relying on EU supply chains would not face additional tariffs on car parts imported from the EU to prevent disruption to supply chains.
  • In addition, there are a number of sectors where tariffs help provide support for UK producers against unfair global trading practices, such as dumping and state subsidies. Tariffs would be retained for these products, including certain ceramics, fertiliser and fuel.
  • To meet our long-standing commitment to reduce poverty through trade, the government currently offers preferential access to the UK market for developing countries. To ensure that access for developing countries is maintained, we would retain tariffs on a set of goods, including bananas, raw cane sugar, and certain kinds of fish.

-Our priority is securing a deal with the European Union as this will avoid disruption to our global trading relationships. However, we must prepare for all eventualities. If we leave without a deal, we will set the majority of our import tariffs to zero, whilst maintaining tariffs for the most sensitive industries.  This balanced approach will help to support British jobs and avoid potential price spikes that would hit the poorest households the hardest, said Trade Policy Minister George Hollingberg in the release.


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UK May: Legally binding changes to backstop

The UK Prime Minister Theresa May has informed its cabinet that PM has tonight secured new “legally binding assurances” on the Irish border backstop. According to Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington, the new wording of the changes provide information that UK has now new legally binding assurances.

The UK Parliament will have a meaningful vote on Tuesday about the Cabinet´s Brexit deal. If the Cabinet loses the vote, the MPs will get a vote on Wednesday on whether to leave without a deal. If the MPs reject that, then a vote is about the delaying of the Brexit.

PM Theresa May and the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had the meeting tonight in Strasbourg.

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Brexit: May to meet Juncker for last-minute talks

The UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be having last-minute talks with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Mrs May arrived in Strasbourg tonight targeting to win her Brexit deal by MPs.

This meeting is not a quarantee that there would be a new deal. For example the UK and EU did have several discussions during the weekend, and according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel it is now the British MPs time to vote.

The British pound has strenghtened 1,2 % to 1,3169 dollars. The FTSE 100 -index went up by 0,37 % to 7130 points in today´s trading in the London Stock Exchange.

The UK decision to leave the EU is in a couple of weeks, on the 29th of March 2019. The border issue related to the Irish backstop has been one of the major issues in the Brexit talks.




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NBIM to review climate risk

The Norway´s Pension Fund, NBIM, will be reviewing Climate Risk. According to the information from the Ministry of Finance in Norway, the Pension Fund is to review the Climate Risk in the portfolio.

The information was given at the same time when the Fund decided to exclude the oil & gas exploration and production companies from the Fund.

– Climate risk is an important financial risk factor for the GPFG, and will over time have an impact on several of the companies in which the GPFG is invested. The Ministry of Finance will ask Norges Bank to review its efforts relating to climate risk in the GPFG, with a view of strengthening efforts in relation to those individual companies accounting for the largest contributions to the climate risk associated with the Fund, according to the press release.

Companies classified as exploration and production companies by the index provider FTSE Russell will be excluded from the GPFG’s benchmark index and investment universe in a longer term perspective.


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