Brexit: UK May wins confidence vote – crosstalks continue

The UK Prime Minister Theresa May´s Goverment wins the confidence vote in the Parliament today.  Numbers 325-306 the Goverment will continue its Brexit-negotiations and reaching some kind of deal with the EU.

Prime Minister Theresa May said after the voting results that she will continue the Brexit-negotiations with all the party leaders, starting tonight. She said that the target is to reach a statement by Monday about the EU deal in the Parliament.

Yesterday evening the Parliament rejected the  Goverment´s Brexit-deal and now the UK does not have any agreement to face the exit timetable March 29th. Many party leaders, including the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn have stated that no-deal Brexit must be ruled out of the Brexit options.

EU leaders have not yet responded to the voting results but during the day there has been discussions of various options – including the extending the exit-time.

 

Business Finance

Brexit-deal rejected – stocks gaining in US

The UK Parliament has rejected the Brexit-deal with numbers 432-202. Prime Minister Theresa May and the other supporters fear that this could lead to a disorderly exit from the EU. According to the plan, the UK should leave the EU on March 29th.

After years of negotiations and fierce debate in the Parliament, the historic vote today means that the UK is now in a political crisis. The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said that he will ask for a vote of confidence, which will be tomorrow on Wednesday.

According to Reuters, the Cabinet ministers are still having a confcall tonight with the UK business leaders about the Brexit-vote and what does it mean to the business and City.

The EU has said that there will be no emergency summit beause of the situation. The EU leaders also confirmed that the deal, which was negotiated in November, will not be reopened.

The UK sterling was trading about 0,04 % up at 1,286 against to dollar. Euro was down by 0,49% to 1,14 dollars.

The US stocks were all up and Dow Jones showed 0,41 % to 24 008 points, S&P 500 -index was up 0,96 % to 2607 points and Nasdaq 1,47 % to 7007 points. In London the FTSE 100 ended up 0,73 % to 6895 points. In Germany the Dax-index ended up 0,33 % to 10891 points and in France the CAC 40 -index 0,49 % to 4786 points.

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Brexit: Is there democracy?

After several months fierce debate over the Brexit agreement and its content, the next week will be historic for the UK economy and the country´s citizens. The Parliament is voting on Tuesday about the Brexit-deal and it will then give more guidance, how the Brexit-deal is going further and how the exit will happen on March this year.

The UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the Bank of England have warned of the non-deal Brexit. This means that if the Parliament rejects the negotiated Brexit-deal by the PM, this would be the worst scenario for the UK´s economy and its citizens, according to Central Bank´s analysis. The analysis, which was published in December, highlights that this would mean dramatically lower property prises, market volatility and  severe difficulties in trade for goods and services.

Today on Sunday, the PM Theresa May wrote in Sunday Express about her feelings and thoughts. Her message was clear: “It is time to forget the games and do what is right for the country”. She also pointed that by rejecting her Brexit-deal would mean that the Parliament has forgotten the original Brexit-vote and thus undermined the deomocracy.

In the BBC TV Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn told in today´s interview that his own view is that he would rather get a negotiated deal now and stop the danger of a no-deal exit from the EU.

Also the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was visting the UK Cabinet last week in the UK,  sent his greetings that “the whole world want UK to avoid no-deal Brexit” and gave his full-support for the UK-EU deal.

Theresa May and her Cabinet have been discussing with the EU leaders about the Irish border issue ( a new physical border)  during the December and January time. This issue is sensitive for the UK, while the critics see this border issue as an binding element for the UK to follow the EU rules forever.  The new border would be between the Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

The UK economy saw the worst Christmas sales for years while the consumer confidence was weak due to Brexit. The UK economy is like in a war situation: the inventories are been filled with foods and drugs if the non-deal Brexit would cause chaos in the customs during the spring time. Travellers have been warned for the longer waiting times in the customs.

According to the Band of England´s Governor Mark Carney, the banks and the banking system are prepared for the worst, if this would be the case.

So, what to expect from the next week? The market volatility is expected to continue, but the traders and markets are looking for the Tuesday  UK decision until they make any big decisions. The markets are doing the thing PM May wished for today.

 

 

Business Finance

Highlights of the year 2018 – Brexit, trade talks and green finance

The year 2018 was a year of Brexit, electric cars and trade talks. It included special moments in the financial markets and in the company side. Green Bonds and Green Finance were getting more attention in the markets and trade talks and Brexit were the topics during the year 2018 along. Climate Change and low carbon landed also in the agenda of central banks.

Investors were also asking what is the role of the City as a global financial hub. Should it have its own rules in spite of the Brexit? In the financial hub competition, Frankfurt and Paris were the European cities to get more new financial offices as financial companies were moving some operations to the EU side.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote of the Brexit during Janury 2019 after very intensive debate about the deal during the year.

Climate Change has become part of the everyday life in the financial markets and for example one of the biggest insurance companies in the US, Berskhire Hathaway informed in February 2018, that it has got 3 billion dollars losses of the natural catastrophies, the hurricances in the US. Several central banks, including the European Central Bank and some Asian ones, have also agreed about the co-operation in the climate issues and how to monitor the impact on the markets.

In the tech-side augmented reality and ioT were the themes for the year. Apple, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Intel  and Samsung  were one of the tech-companies to deliver new services related to the new technology. On the other side of the topic, Facebook was dealing with the privacy issues globally. New tech- companies listed in the markets were for example Spotify and Xiaomi.

Year 2018 was a year of electric cars in many countries. The e-cars breakthrough with charging issues was one of the tech topics as well. Telsa founder Elon Musk was the leading industry sector figure as he estimated that Tesla would make one million cars by 2020 in February 2018.

Also the German automakers announced new investments and concept cars. For example the BMW Group launched an autonomous driving campus in Munich in March 2018.

Year 2018 was also a year for luxury goods and services. The Basel World 2018 -fair announced its good selling and for example the CEO of Hublot, Ricardo Guadalupe,  told ComteamPUB+ that the company expects double digit growth for the year and that the Chinese customers will be the leading segment.

In the debt markets the US Uber and Netflix issued their junk bonds to investors. Uber, the ride-sharing company, is said to plan an IPO for the year 2019 according to the secret filings to the SEC.

One of the biggest infrastructure projects ever, the China Silk Road, is getting more attention from the green investors side, while the organization made its first announcement of the green principles for the project co-operation and operators. The ancient Silk Road is expected to rise the GDP growth by 4 % or 240 billion dollars in the countries invlolved according to Credit Suisse analysis.

The aim of the Roman time Silk Road is to connect the western Europe with the eastern coast of China and to renew the infrasturcture in between. This means also that the 10 world largest container ports are located along the route.

Trade talks between different countries have continued lively during the year. US and China have been in the headlines, but also the EU with its agreement with Japan.  The political situation and rising volatility in the financial markets tell the direction for the next year. Geopolitical easing is needed.

Päivi Härkönen, co-founder, ComteamPUB+

 

 

Business Finance Lifestyle

Stocks gained after the UK confidence vote

Wall Steet ended up lifted by the better trade outlook and the UK confidence vote. UK Prime Minister Theresa May won the vote of the confidence of the Conservative Party in London on Wednesday.

According to PM May, the focus is now delivering the Brexit deal in order to build the better future for Britain and brining the country together. She mentioned also that she will have negotiations with the EU members on Thursday regarding the legal and political assuarances of the Brexit deal.

Dow Jones ended up 0,64 % to 24 527 points, S&P 500 -index  ended up 0,54 % to 2651 points and technology-index Nasdaq closed up 0,95 % to 7098 points. In Europe the FTSE 100 -index closed up 1,08 % to 6880 points and German DAX-index + 1,38 % to 10929 points and in France the CAC 40 -index closed up 2,15 % to 4909 points.

In Asia the stocks were also on the upward trend and in Hong Kong the Hang Seng -index closed up 1,61 % to 26 186 points and in Japan the Nikkei 225 -index ended up 2,15 % to 21 602 points.

The euro was trading at 1,137 dollars, up 0,04 % and UK sterling rose 0,06 % to 1,263 US-dollars.

The Brexit-process will continue as planned and after the EU-meetings on Thursday and Friday, it is expected that the UK Parliament would have the Brexit vote before the 21st January 2019. According to the timetable, the Brexit breakup will be on the 29th March 2019.

For the UK Conservative Party, it means that the Party will have to renew their position for the next elections, while it might be that the PM May is not the Party leader then.

Business Finance

UK PM Theresa May wins the vote of confidence

UK Prime Minister Theresa May wins the vote of confidence of the Conservative Party by 200 to 117. The Party has been in discussion over the Brexit deal and its impact on the future of the British people and jobs.

On Thursday and Friday the EU will be discussing the Brexit deal and how the situation can proceed. According to the timetable Britain will leave the EU on the 29th March 2019. The UK Parliament vote of the Brexit deal is expected to happen by the 2st of January 2019.

Business Finance

China easing auto tariffs for US cars -stocks gained

According to US Trump Administration, China has agreed to cut  tariffs on the US built autos and auto parts to 15 % from the current 40 % level. This news helped to heal the US stock markets and for example the automotive shares gained because of this.

The markets are also expecting that the wider trade talks between the US and China seem now a little easier for both parties. The countries agreed in the G20 meeting in Argentina to postpone the tariffs by 90 days.

Dow Jones ended down 0,22 % to 2437 points, S&P 500 -index ended down 0,04 % to 2636 points, but the Nasdaq-index ended up 0,16 % to 7031 points. In Europe the UK FTSE 100 -index ended up 1,51 % to 6835 points, the German DAX-index ended up 1,49 % to 10780 points and the CAC40 in Paris ended up 1,35 % to 4806 points.

The euro was trading flat at 1,13 dollars. The sterling gained slightly 0,01 % and was trading at 1,248 dollars.

The UK – EU Brexit situation is expected to gain some new input on Thursday and Friday, when the EU meeting in taking place. In the meanwhile UK Prime Minister Theresa May have had discussions with different country leaders about the Irish border issue and resassurances. Today she met the German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin.

Many EU leaders have said that they want to help the UK to reach the Brexit deal in order to avoid the situation that there is no deal at all. The Bank of England has made analysis of the hard-case and the economic impact would be very difficult for the UK trade and economy.

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