Brexit: UK Conservatives leading the polls – FT

The Conservatives are leading the UK Brexit general elections due in December 12th. According to Financial Times, the poll of polls indicates that the Conservatives are having 39 % of votes compared to Labour´s 29 %. The estimation is based on the situation of November 14th and it takes account all major voting surveys in the UK (totally 10 different polls).

According to the data, Liberal Democrats are having 16 %, Brexit party 8 % and Greens 3 % of the votes.

From the September 19th situation, the only parties that have gained more votes are Conservatives and Labour. The voting interest for Conservatives is ranging from 35 % to 42 % and for the Labour from 24 % to 31 % in the mid November.

Many political analysts find the “Red Wall” in the north of England as one of the major impact areas for the final results in the elections. The big question is how many Labour voters (that voted earlier remain) would move to Liberal Democrats and thus make more room for Conservatives to take the lead. One could also say it is up to Tories if they can hold there or it is up to Labour voters what do they do.

The equity markets closed today on Thursday down 0,80 % to 7292 points in London Stock Exchange. Annually the FTSE 100-index has increased by 3,68 %, well below compared to the US stock markets. The UK sterling was trading up 0,22 % to 1,29 US-dollars.


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Brexit: UK Parliament 5 weeks break

The UK Parliament has started its five weeks break during this week. The MPs are getting back on the 14th October, while the Halloween deadline for Brexit is scheduled for the 31st of October.

The parties will be having their annual conferences during this time and also preparing for the possibility of general elections. The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that he will not delay the Brexit and his ambition is to get a new deal with the EU, with the new EU leaders.

On the other hand, if there is no new deal at the end of October, the 19th, the Prime Minister has to extend the deadline to the end of January 2020 and resign. And this would mean new elections or new referendum.

The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and other opposition parties have agreed not to back the PM´s demand for a general election before the EU-summit. The EU Summit will take place on the 17-18th October in Brussels.


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Brexit: MPs vote to block no-deal

The UK Parliament has today voted to block the no-deal Brexit scenario. According to this bill, the Prime Minister will have to seek Brexit delay if no new agreement has been made by the 19th October. The bill was voted by numbers 327 to 299. This result has been a defeat for the new PM Boris Johnson, which has been against the delay of the exit time.

The Parliament also voted down the PM´s attempt for snap general elections, which would have needed two thirds of MPs to win the case.

On Wednesday the Treasury Committee published the letter of the Bank of England Governor Mark  Carney regarding the new updated Brexit perceptions. The BoE says that in no-deal Brexit case the economic impact would not be so severe than the bank´s forecast in November. This is due to the situation that there has been preparations by companies and government for the new trade situation.

– UK banks are capitalised to withstand much more adverse combinations of domestic and global economic shocks and to keep serving the UK´s households and businesses. The UK banks have sufficient capital to continue lending through both worst-case, disorderly Brexit and a global trade war, Mr Carney wrote in the letter.

The stocks closed slightly up in London on Wednesday and the FTSE-index was up 0,59 % to 7311 points. The UK sterling was trading also up 0,02 % at 1,23 dollars.



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