US-UK trade deal on the agenda

The US and UK have been discussing about the trade deal between the countries after the Brexit deal, which is estimated to happen latest October 31st. This is part of the state visit of the US President Donald Trump and the UK royal family & Government.

According to the news conference on Tuesday, Mr Donald Trump said that the US-UK trade deal would have “tremendous potential” and coverage, even maybe the health care system NHS.

He also mentioned that the UK Brexit deal with the EU countries “will happen and should happen” and that it is important to deliver the Brexit. The US is offering the UK a broad free-trade agreement once the country has left the EU.

The UK Prime Minister Theresa May said also in the news conference that the UK should deliver the Brexit deal as the Goverment has been negotiated and that it is now the duty of the UK Parliament.

Mrs May is leaving the Downing Street 10 on Friday and the next Prime Minister will be chosen by the Conservatives during the summer time, maybe in July in the UK.

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Brexit: May to propose new deal in June

The Brexit situation in the UK changes very rapidly. Last week the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said that the talks with the Goverment has ended due to the rising talks of the new successor to PM and due to the deal issues itself. On Sunday the Prime Minister said that she is to present a new deal to the Parliament in the early June, as she earlier said.

The successor issue to Mrs May is confusing the negotiations in the UK and according to Bloomberg News, it seems that the Labour Party is turning towards to the second referendum. For corporates and business, this means that the no-deal Brexit might still be an option.  “A messy exit could still happen by accident”, said British Chambers of Commerce according to Bloomberg.

In the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE 100 index was trading down 0,03 % to 7333 points. In Germany the DAX-index was trading down 0,15 % to 12 220 points and in France the CAC 40 -index down 0,21 % to 5426 points.

The pound was trading slightly up, 0,21 % to 1,275 dollars and euro also up, 0,04 % to 1,116 dollars. The Australian dollar was up, 0,93 % to 0,69 US-dollars.

The trade war between the US and China is one of main topics. According to Bloomberg, 34 % of the investors surveyed by the Bank of America said that they have purchased protection against a sharp decline in the equities over the next three months.

US President Donald Trump has delayed the possible auto tariffs with the EU with 6 months delay.

In Asia the week started mixed as the Hang Song index ended down 0,56 % to 27 788 points in Hong Kong, but the Nikkei 225-index ended up 0,24 % to 21 301 points in Tokyo. The Indian Sensex index increased 3,07 % to 39 095 points.

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China´s Xi Jinping: Focus on stable development

Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the country need to focus on stable economic and financial development according to news agency Xinhua on Saturday.

– It is necessary to focus on preventing risks on the basis of steady growth, while strengthening the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and monetary policy and ensuring that the ecnomomy operates in a reasonable range, Xi said.

According to President Xi, preventing and resolving financial risks, especially systemic financial risks, is a fundamental task, the Xinhua reported.

One of the biggest issues lately has also been the US China trade talks. According to Reuters, the country negotiators met also on Saturday to reach the agreement and trying to prevent the escalation of the trade tariffs.

According to US President Donald Trump and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin the countries have reached an understanding of the currency issues. The US have argued long time that China´s yuan is undervalued and thus giving trade advantage and partly offsetting the US tariffs. No more information was given about the currency agreement.

It is expected that the President Xi Jinping and Donald Trump would meet next time in March in Florida.

Business Finance

Highlights of the year 2018 – Brexit, trade talks and green finance

The year 2018 was a year of Brexit, electric cars and trade talks. It included special moments in the financial markets and in the company side. Green Bonds and Green Finance were getting more attention in the markets and trade talks and Brexit were the topics during the year 2018 along. Climate Change and low carbon landed also in the agenda of central banks.

Investors were also asking what is the role of the City as a global financial hub. Should it have its own rules in spite of the Brexit? In the financial hub competition, Frankfurt and Paris were the European cities to get more new financial offices as financial companies were moving some operations to the EU side.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote of the Brexit during Janury 2019 after very intensive debate about the deal during the year.

Climate Change has become part of the everyday life in the financial markets and for example one of the biggest insurance companies in the US, Berskhire Hathaway informed in February 2018, that it has got 3 billion dollars losses of the natural catastrophies, the hurricances in the US. Several central banks, including the European Central Bank and some Asian ones, have also agreed about the co-operation in the climate issues and how to monitor the impact on the markets.

In the tech-side augmented reality and ioT were the themes for the year. Apple, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Intel  and Samsung  were one of the tech-companies to deliver new services related to the new technology. On the other side of the topic, Facebook was dealing with the privacy issues globally. New tech- companies listed in the markets were for example Spotify and Xiaomi.

Year 2018 was a year of electric cars in many countries. The e-cars breakthrough with charging issues was one of the tech topics as well. Telsa founder Elon Musk was the leading industry sector figure as he estimated that Tesla would make one million cars by 2020 in February 2018.

Also the German automakers announced new investments and concept cars. For example the BMW Group launched an autonomous driving campus in Munich in March 2018.

Year 2018 was also a year for luxury goods and services. The Basel World 2018 -fair announced its good selling and for example the CEO of Hublot, Ricardo Guadalupe,  told ComteamPUB+ that the company expects double digit growth for the year and that the Chinese customers will be the leading segment.

In the debt markets the US Uber and Netflix issued their junk bonds to investors. Uber, the ride-sharing company, is said to plan an IPO for the year 2019 according to the secret filings to the SEC.

One of the biggest infrastructure projects ever, the China Silk Road, is getting more attention from the green investors side, while the organization made its first announcement of the green principles for the project co-operation and operators. The ancient Silk Road is expected to rise the GDP growth by 4 % or 240 billion dollars in the countries invlolved according to Credit Suisse analysis.

The aim of the Roman time Silk Road is to connect the western Europe with the eastern coast of China and to renew the infrasturcture in between. This means also that the 10 world largest container ports are located along the route.

Trade talks between different countries have continued lively during the year. US and China have been in the headlines, but also the EU with its agreement with Japan.  The political situation and rising volatility in the financial markets tell the direction for the next year. Geopolitical easing is needed.

Päivi Härkönen, co-founder, ComteamPUB+

 

 

Business Finance Lifestyle

China easing auto tariffs for US cars -stocks gained

According to US Trump Administration, China has agreed to cut  tariffs on the US built autos and auto parts to 15 % from the current 40 % level. This news helped to heal the US stock markets and for example the automotive shares gained because of this.

The markets are also expecting that the wider trade talks between the US and China seem now a little easier for both parties. The countries agreed in the G20 meeting in Argentina to postpone the tariffs by 90 days.

Dow Jones ended down 0,22 % to 2437 points, S&P 500 -index ended down 0,04 % to 2636 points, but the Nasdaq-index ended up 0,16 % to 7031 points. In Europe the UK FTSE 100 -index ended up 1,51 % to 6835 points, the German DAX-index ended up 1,49 % to 10780 points and the CAC40 in Paris ended up 1,35 % to 4806 points.

The euro was trading flat at 1,13 dollars. The sterling gained slightly 0,01 % and was trading at 1,248 dollars.

The UK – EU Brexit situation is expected to gain some new input on Thursday and Friday, when the EU meeting in taking place. In the meanwhile UK Prime Minister Theresa May have had discussions with different country leaders about the Irish border issue and resassurances. Today she met the German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin.

Many EU leaders have said that they want to help the UK to reach the Brexit deal in order to avoid the situation that there is no deal at all. The Bank of England has made analysis of the hard-case and the economic impact would be very difficult for the UK trade and economy.

Business Finance

G20: US and China to halt tradewar

During the G20 meeting in Argentina the US and China leaders, President Mr Donald Trump and China President Mr Xi Jinping agreed to halt the escalating trade war.

According to the White House spokesperson,  President Trump would not follow through his threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25% in the new year.  This has been the major issue in the discussions and also one of the biggest threats to global economy.

The countries also agreed that China will buy more agricultural, energy and industrial products from the United States. The aim is to reduce the trade imbalance between the countries.

According to White House, this new statement gives both countries 90 days time to agree upon new trade terms. If such agreement is not ready, the former tariffs increase from 10% to 25 % will become into force.

The financial markets ended up in Wall Street on Friday evening. Dow Jones ended +0,79 % to 25538, S&P 500 + 0,82 % to 2760 and Nasdaq 0,79 % to 7330 points. In Europe the markets were down with the FTSE 100 -index -0,83 % to 6980 and German Dax-index -0,36 % to 11 257 and CAC 40-index in Paris -0,05% to 5003.

Euro declined 0,67 % to 1,13 US-dollars and UK sterling ended down 0,33 % to  1,27 US-dollars.

Business

Brexit: May on tour – vote day the 11th Dec

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The British Prime Minister Theresa May has been on tour in order to engage with the Brexit-deal. Today she has been in the Northern Ireland and Wales as part of her campaign. Her message is the same as was released on Sunday in the EU leaders meeting in Brussels.

The main argument still is that this is part of the national interest and the second point is that this is the only Brexit deal, there is not going to be a better one.

The voting day has been confirmed and it is the 11th of December, that is on Tuesday. So, there is excatly 14 days before the vote in Westminister in London. The Bank of England and Goverment  are going to publish their analysis of the economic impact of the Brexit-deal. According to Reuters, this information should be ready tomorrow,  on Wednesday this week.

The financial markets were mixed today. For example the German Dax-index ended down 0,40 percent to 11309,11 points and in Paris the stocks were down 0,24 percent-  the CAC 40 -index ended at 4983,15 points. In London the FTSE 100 -index ended down 0,27 percent and was 7016,85 points.

In Wall Street the stocks were also mixed – Dow Jones -index was up 0,18 percent at 24685,55 points and  S&P 500 -index was up 0,09 percent to 2675,87 points. Nasdaq-index had declined by 0,22 percent and was 7066,08 points.

This week will be important G20 meeting in Argentina and  according to Financial Times the US- China tradetalks have not performed  as good as expected so far. The question of the US- UK tradetalks in post Brexit-time is also one of the topics.

One of the big news today was the General Motors layoffs in the US. The car company announced its plans to cut production at several sites and to lay off more than 14.000 workers. The stock of GM (GM) was down 3,55 percent to 36,32 dollars. President Donald Trump tweeted that he will consider cutting all GM subsidies because of the plans. “including the electric cars”, he tweeted according to CNBC.

The euro was down by 0,30 percent to 1,129 US-dollars and the sterling was down by 0,76 percent to 1,2730 US-dollars.

 

 

 

 

 

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